The US soybean producer is about to have its first major test of life in Tariffville. Short-term prices will be impacted significantly by weekly export shipments and sales. Typically soybean export shipments peak in Oct and Nov. In the chart above, week 60 on the X axis is Oct 15th. In prior years China was the major recipient, generally taking about 2/3rds of the shipments. Current sales bookings are 16 MMT, 1 MMT less than last year. It's likely the 2018/19 shipment line will be flatter than prior years as sales go to non-Chinese destinations, but the US needs to make hay while the discounts to South American beans are the greatest - that is now. A peak weekly pace of 2 MMT is our goal to support current prices.
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