IAG Blog Archives:

April 4, 2018 | |

Soybeans - Tariff Response

Two types of market responses:


Emotional – Market has a large spec soy long. Response is negative – easy to say today.



  1. First: China does not trade corn or wheat – direct impact is none. Only impact to grains is indirectly from soybean values.
  2. Think of this as an additional freight charge.
  3. Freight differentials are absorbed in basis not futures.


Old Crop US soy impact:

  1. US has shipped 25 MMT of 36 MMT we expected to sell to China.
  2. Balance (11 MMT) can be filled by Brazil and other SA suppliers. Not Argentina this year.
  3. Brazil has 20 MMT of exports to Non-Chinese destinations that can be shifted to China.
  4. US will move 11 MMT more soybeans to Non-Chinese destinations.


March 28, 2018 | | crops farm riskmanagement

What Is the Future of Ag Robots?

New robotics are already transforming several aspects of agriculture. While the market is small, it’s burgeoning. And it’s expected to keep growing. 

Will Robotics Eliminate Large Ag Machinery? 

March 7, 2018 | |

Why China Is Buying Australian Farmland... and Its Impact

In the world of agribusiness investing, it’s crucial to keep up with the newest data and information.

So here’s an interesting fact:

Back in 2013, the biggest importers of Australian wines were the U.K. and the U.S.


February 8, 2018 | | corn usda outlook

Could USDA Outlook Forum Take 2 Million Acres Off US Corn?

The USDA Outlook Forum is February 22-23. The crop acreage math points to 1.4 million less corn acres in 2018 vs. 2017. The USDA Long Term Projections had US corn and soybean acres at 91 million each. Leaving wheat acres unchanged YOY, adding 600k acres to cotton, moving soy to 91 from 90.2 last year, leaves only 89 million acres for corn – down 2mm from the Long Term Projections. 89 million puts total area for the four crops at 239 million. 239 million would be the largest Forum number since 239.8 in 2013.  239 is equal to the final planted area last year.

Corn area will be challenged and the IAG Models indicate 91 million acres of soybeans will prove to be just adequate for growing demand. It is likely soybean acreage in the USDA March 30 Planting Intentions Report will be above 91 million.


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